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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) 25-E.Mitchell left tackle to LA 24 for 5 yards (50-E.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.02 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.52 EP