Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Denver Broncos 7

(11:36) 8-A.Siposs punts 54 yards to DEN 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 28 for 8 yards (54-S.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model