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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 3

Denver Broncos 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +3.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP