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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:10) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.67 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model