Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 89

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Denver Broncos 10

(9:16) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to DEN 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Spencer ran ob at PHI 45 for 19 yards (45-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.59 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 89, worth -5.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model