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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 10

Denver Broncos 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model