Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 79

Denver Broncos 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

(13:40) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to PHI 35, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model