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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 5

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 4-J.Elliott 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP