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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 30 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to DEN 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.58 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP