Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(8:50) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to PHI 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model