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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 7 at the 10
Denver Broncos 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 30
What Actually Happened
(2:13) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 81-T.Patrick.
The Three Options
GO
+1.73 EP
What Happened
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.70 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.42 EP
KICK
+1.78 EP
Model's Pick
- 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT
-0.44 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
