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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at WAS 25 for 22 yards (23-W.Jackson). PENALTY on WAS-23-W.Jackson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 13 yards, enforced at WAS 25.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.38 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP