Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 98

Washington Commanders 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to WAS 47, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 1-J.Darden to WAS 43 for 4 yards (48-D.Forrest). TB-1-J.Darden was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -4.03 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.81 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 98, worth -6.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model