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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 28

Washington Commanders 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 41-J.McKissic to TB 24 for 4 yards (54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model