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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model