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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(5:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to SEA 46 for 1 yard (56-J.Brooks; 99-A.Woods). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model