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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to ARI 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-R.Moore to ARI 18 for 8 yards (19-P.Hart; 31-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.40 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model