4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model