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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model