4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model