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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 33

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(:24) 14-A.Lee punts 33 yards to end zone, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.50 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.05 EP