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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ARI 5, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model