4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model