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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 64

Chicago Bears 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to BAL 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 36 for 12 yards (35-R.Nall).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.94 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model