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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley left tackle to CHI 35 for 8 yards (23-M.Christian).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.62 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -1.43 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model