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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 49

Chicago Bears 0 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to BAL 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.12 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model