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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to CHI 17, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model