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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to CHI 14, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 51, worth -3.10 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model