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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 64

Chicago Bears 7 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to BAL 14, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-20-D.Shelley.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model