Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 83

Chicago Bears 7 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to CHI 45, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-59-C.Marsh. CHI-20-D.Shelley was injured during the play. He is Out. Punt was tipped by 45-J.Ferguson

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.00 EP
59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model