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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 54

Chicago Bears 7 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(2:42) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 11-D.Mooney to BAL 48 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.69 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -1.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model