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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 49

Chicago Bears 7 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.42 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.55 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model