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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-41-A.Levine.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model