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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 77

Chicago Bears 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to BAL 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 31 for 7 yards (23-M.Christian).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model