Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

(:40) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to LV 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 24 for 11 yards (34-S.Perine).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.47 EP
71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model