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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.02 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model