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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 29

Cincinnati Bengals 29 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model