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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to LV 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 39 for 12 yards (31-Mi.Thomas; 46-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.02 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP