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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 14 for no gain (82-D.Fountain).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.19 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model