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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 80

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to KC 33, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.74 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 37, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP