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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DAL 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 26 for 7 yards (26-C.Lammons).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model