Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 79

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 5-B.Anger punts 34 yards to KC 45, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. Penalty on KC-27-R.Fenton, Taunting, offsetting. Penalty on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Face Mask (15 Yards), offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.38 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model