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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.79 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP