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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to KC 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-M.Hughes to KC 14 for 9 yards (87-J.Sprinkle).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model