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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 34

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker punts 31 yards to DAL 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.16 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP