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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.29 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 19, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model