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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 2-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model