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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 61

Detroit Lions 0 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model