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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 13 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to DET 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 40 for 17 yards (43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model