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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 25

Detroit Lions 7 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 5-A.Rosas 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.30 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP